The Australian Open Women's Final Tennis match between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams was a game that generated lots of attention and a good choice for my "showcase" example on how to profit with the Arbulator in Betfair.

While a good knowledge of the players would help in setting the odds for winning, the problem with games is that the ball is round and it can go in any direction.
Hence I rely more on market movement to help me decide on the odds that I offer or adjust to profit from my arbitrage trading.

Here is a lesson on how I made 325% ROI instead of the intended 3.80% ROI with the Arbulator in Betfair.

By studying the Market Information of the match in Betfair, it is not difficult to decide on who and what to trade for a potential profit:

1. The odds for the underdog, Serena Williams at around 14:38 hours (GMT+8) on 26 Jan 2007 was hovering around 3.15.

2. I chose a Lay Low and Back High trade on Williams because it was less "crowded" with existing offers and hence would provide better chances for my offers to be matched.

3. I decided on a 3.80% ROI because this is a reasonable profit margin to expect from a high volume and high volatility Tennis final match.

4. In the event that only 1 of my 2 trades got matched when the game goes into In-play, it would be easy for me to use the Arbulator's Hedge function to break even when the need arises.

I had profited from similar kind of trades 9 out of ten times in the past and I expect this outcome to be another calculated risk-free win for me.

This is the screen shot of the the odds and stakes that I had decided to use to back high and lay low on Williams in Betfair at around 14:39 hours:

This is the screen shot at Betfair at around 1700 hour (GMT +8) on 26 Jan 2007, some 18 hours away from the start of the game:

The odds for Williams had moved downwards indicating that some people were expecting Williams to win the game.

As this was just a "showcase" Betfair trading example, the actual stakes used for the Back offer was $9.11 and the Lay offer was $10 instead of the $910.77 and $1000 respectively or 1/100_th. of  what were shown in the Arbulator screen shot.

Based on the market movement, I decided to adjust my Lay odds downwards from 3.00 to 2.96 and the Back stake as well to maintain a risk free profit of 85 cents from a total investment of $19.11:

By doing so, I had improved my ROI to 4.44%.

The whole idea is to be in control of the market situation in Betfair to try to maximize the return by shortening or lengthening the odds.

With the Arbulator, I am able to make the market instead of following it.

This is the screen shot of the Betfair after my Back offer of 3.25 was matched at around 8 am (GMT +8), 27 Jan 2007:

Had my $10 Lay offer at 2.96 found a match, I would have made a risk free profit of 85 cents or a ROI of 4.4% and that would be the end of my trade.

Unfortunately or in this case, fortunately, the $10 Lay offer at 2.96 for Williams to lose was automatically cancelled by Betfair when the Australian Open Women's Tennis Final went into In-play some 2.5 hours later.

With the help of the Arbulator, I was in control throughout the game on the need to have any of my shortening Lay offers such as this:

matched for a risk free profit.

But why earn only 43.76% risk free when I can earn 325% when Serena Williams goes on to win the game?

As it turned out, Serena Williams went on to win the game and there was no need for my Lay odds offers that I kept adjusting downloads for increasing ROI to be matched to reduce my profit.

This is the Betfair P&L showing that I have won $20.50 before commission for my one-sided $9.11 Back stake:

 

My original intention of making just 3.08% from the Back High Lay Low trade had turned into a 325% ROI with the help of the Arbulator!

The important thing to note in this "showcase" trade is that I was in full control of my profit position and I could easily make a quick risk free profit even if  Maria Sharapova made a come back.

I trust this Betfair example aptly demonstrates the value of using the Arbulator to profit from arbing in exchanges like Betfair.

This is another risk free profit with a 6.47% ROI at Betfair.

This time round, I helped one of my Arbulator Users Club member to make his first In-play win in Betfair.

The occasion was the closely watched Australian Open Men's Tennis Final between Roger Federer and Fernando Gonzalez played on 28 Jan 2007.

Here is the screen shot from the Arbulator:

and here is the screen shot of Betfair showing the 2-ways matched odds for a risk free profit:

 

The idea of having a Back Back trade in Betfair is to aim for a risk free profit with a reasonable ROI.

The original intention was for a 3% ROI. When the odds for Federer at 1.15 was matched, and the odds for Gonzalez began to lengthen, it became clear that we are in for a good ride and could aim for a higher ROI.

By monitoring the market movements live, and adjusting the odds and the stakes for Gonzalez along the way, we were always on top of the market situation and in full control of the ROI that we wanted for a matched.

We finally settled for a risk free profit of $5.57 or 6.47% ROI at odds of 15 for Gonzalez.

The result of the match of course was won by Federer. Had we continue the lengthening of the Back odds for Gonzalez and then cancel it towards the end of the game, we would have made a 15% ROI for the 1.15% odds matched for Federer!

We were happy that we can arb to profit in Betfair once again.
The feeling of being in control of our arbing throughout the game with the Arbulator is simply wonderful!

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